Panda, Gyana Ranjan Goswami, Priyank and Patra, Suresh Kumar
Evaluation of social sector expenditures and application of the theory of change to enhance good governance in Jammu and Kashmir - Indian Journal of Public Administration - 72(2), Jun, 2026: p.373-392
Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), now a Union Territory (UT) post-August 2019, presents a unique laboratory for studying the relationship between conflict, governance and social sector public expenditure. This article makes a tripartite contribution to the relevant literature: first, it empirically analyses trends in social sector expenditure as a percentage of Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) from 1995 to 2022 using an autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach, stratified across three politically defined phases: the Peak Militancy Period (1990–2002), the Mass Protest Years (2002–2018) and the Post-Reorganisation Phase (2019 onwards). Second, it provides a comprehensive inter-regional comparison between the J&K divisions, supplemented by a systematic inter-district analysis using the socio-economic development index and health infrastructure index, revealing that while expenditure allocations have historically favoured the Kashmir division, developmental outcomes are paradoxically superior in the Jammu division, a finding attributable to differential institutional capacities in conflict-affected versus relatively peaceful geographies. Third, the article critically evaluates five competing evaluation frameworks—cost–benefit analysis, cost-effectiveness analysis, cost–utility analysis, cost–consequence analysis and multi-criteria decision analysis—and provides reasoned justification for selecting the theory of change (ToC) model as the most appropriate analytical approach for J&K’s multi-sector, district-level governance challenge operationalised through the district good governance index (DGGI). The study finds that social sector expenditure has persistently remained below 3 per cent of GSDP across all phases, with a structural bias towards economic sector expenditure, and argues that the ToC model embedded within the DGGI framework offers a replicable, conflict-sensitive evaluation architecture for governance reform in post-conflict societies.- Reproduced
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/00195561261450550?_gl=1*12ypbx*_up*MQ..*_ga*MTEwMzgxODQyOS4xNzg1NzM4Nzg
5*_ga_60R758KFDG*czE3ODU3Mzg3ODkkbzEkZzAkdDE3ODU3Mzg3ODkkajYwJGwxJGg4ODM0NDQ5NDk.
Social sector expenditure, Public expenditure review, Theory of changes, District good governance index, Inter regional comparison, ARDL Model, Jammu and Kashmir, Conflict sensitive governance.
Evaluation of social sector expenditures and application of the theory of change to enhance good governance in Jammu and Kashmir - Indian Journal of Public Administration - 72(2), Jun, 2026: p.373-392
Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), now a Union Territory (UT) post-August 2019, presents a unique laboratory for studying the relationship between conflict, governance and social sector public expenditure. This article makes a tripartite contribution to the relevant literature: first, it empirically analyses trends in social sector expenditure as a percentage of Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) from 1995 to 2022 using an autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach, stratified across three politically defined phases: the Peak Militancy Period (1990–2002), the Mass Protest Years (2002–2018) and the Post-Reorganisation Phase (2019 onwards). Second, it provides a comprehensive inter-regional comparison between the J&K divisions, supplemented by a systematic inter-district analysis using the socio-economic development index and health infrastructure index, revealing that while expenditure allocations have historically favoured the Kashmir division, developmental outcomes are paradoxically superior in the Jammu division, a finding attributable to differential institutional capacities in conflict-affected versus relatively peaceful geographies. Third, the article critically evaluates five competing evaluation frameworks—cost–benefit analysis, cost-effectiveness analysis, cost–utility analysis, cost–consequence analysis and multi-criteria decision analysis—and provides reasoned justification for selecting the theory of change (ToC) model as the most appropriate analytical approach for J&K’s multi-sector, district-level governance challenge operationalised through the district good governance index (DGGI). The study finds that social sector expenditure has persistently remained below 3 per cent of GSDP across all phases, with a structural bias towards economic sector expenditure, and argues that the ToC model embedded within the DGGI framework offers a replicable, conflict-sensitive evaluation architecture for governance reform in post-conflict societies.- Reproduced
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/00195561261450550?_gl=1*12ypbx*_up*MQ..*_ga*MTEwMzgxODQyOS4xNzg1NzM4Nzg
5*_ga_60R758KFDG*czE3ODU3Mzg3ODkkbzEkZzAkdDE3ODU3Mzg3ODkkajYwJGwxJGg4ODM0NDQ5NDk.
Social sector expenditure, Public expenditure review, Theory of changes, District good governance index, Inter regional comparison, ARDL Model, Jammu and Kashmir, Conflict sensitive governance.