Indian Institute of Public Administration

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Reference class forecasting and machine learning for improved offshore oil and gas megaproject planning: Methods and application (Record no. 522131)

000 -LEADER
fixed length control field 01484nam a22001577a 4500
008 - FIXED-LENGTH DATA ELEMENTS--GENERAL INFORMATION
fixed length control field 230313b ||||| |||| 00| 0 eng d
100 ## - MAIN ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Natarajan, Ananth
245 ## - TITLE STATEMENT
Title Reference class forecasting and machine learning for improved offshore oil and gas megaproject planning: Methods and application
260 ## - PUBLICATION, DISTRIBUTION, ETC. (IMPRINT)
Place of publication, distribution, etc Project Management Journal
300 ## - PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION
Extent 53(5), Oct, 2022: p.456-484
520 ## - SUMMARY, ETC.
Summary, etc This article develops and describes rigorous oil and gas project forecasting methods. First, it builds a theoretical foundation by mapping megaproject performance literature to these projects. Second, it draws on heuristics and biases literature, using a questionnaire to demonstrate forecasting-related biases and principal-agent issues among industry project professionals. Third, it uses methodically collected project performance data to demonstrate that overrun distributions are non-normal and fat-tailed. Fourth, reference-class forecasting is demonstrated for cost and schedule uplifts. Finally, a predictive approach using machine learning (ML) considers project-specific factors to forecast the most likely cost and schedule overruns in a project.- Reproduced
650 ## - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM
Topical term or geographic name as entry element Megaproject performance, Reference class forecasting, Oil and gas projects, Machine learning, Schedule and cost overruns, Megaproject performance forecasting, Planning, heuristics, biases.
9 (RLIN) 36820
773 ## - HOST ITEM ENTRY
Main entry heading Project Management Journal
906 ## - LOCAL DATA ELEMENT F, LDF (RLIN)
Subject DIP ENERGY RESOURCES
942 ## - ADDED ENTRY ELEMENTS (KOHA)
Item type Articles
Holdings
Withdrawn status Lost status Source of classification or shelving scheme Damaged status Not for loan Permanent location Current location Date acquired Serial Enumeration / chronology Barcode Date last seen Koha item type
          Indian Institute of Public Administration Indian Institute of Public Administration 2023-03-13 53(5), Oct, 2022: p.456-484 AR128379 2023-03-13 Articles

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