Using candidates’ tweets to predict an election outcome (Record no. 530348)

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Personal name Afonso, Francisco Rita, Paulo and António, Nuno
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Title Using candidates’ tweets to predict an election outcome
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Place of publication, distribution, etc Political Research Quarterly
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Extent 78(1), Mar, 2025: p.323-340
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Summary, etc Understanding social media’s role in political communication is crucial in the evolving media landscape. Motivated by the transformative impact of social media on political engagement and discourse, this research fills an under-explored academic gap, studying the effects of geographic focus—local versus national—in candidates’ tweets on U.S. Senate election outcomes. It reveals a modest but significant correlation between the nature of political discourse and election competitiveness. Interestingly, strict adherence to party-centric topics did not significantly influence electoral success. The study assessed the performance of regression and classification models in forecasting election outcomes, with classification models demonstrating superior results. Both models provide a new benchmark for future studies in political communication on social media. These findings bear considerable implications for political practitioners, indicating that election success is not merely guaranteed by echoing party-centric issues or predominantly adopting a national communication scope.- Reproduced

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/10659129241286827
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Topical term or geographic name as entry element Machine learning, predictive modeling, Topic analysis, Political communication, Social media political marketing, Twitter.
9 (RLIN) 54153
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Main entry heading Political Research Quarterly
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Item type Articles
Holdings
Withdrawn status Lost status Source of classification or shelving scheme Damaged status Not for loan Permanent location Current location Date acquired Serial Enumeration / chronology Barcode Date last seen Koha item type
          Indian Institute of Public Administration Indian Institute of Public Administration 2025-06-10 78(1), Mar, 2025: p.323-340 AR136163 2025-06-10 Articles

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