Quantifying the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 outbreak: The case of Sweden
By: Cho, Sang-Wook
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Material type: 
BookPublisher: The Econometrics Journal Description: 23(3), Sep, 2020: p.323-344.Subject(s): COVID-19, Casual impact, systhetic control method, Public health policies, Sweden
In:
The Econometrics JournalSummary: This paper estimates the effect of non pharmaceutical intervention policies on public health during the COVID-19 outbreak by considering a counterfactual case for Sweden. Using a synthetic control approach, I find that strict initial lockdown measures play an important role in limiting the spread of the COVID-19 infection, as the infection cases in Sweden would have been reduced by almost 75 percent had its policymakers followed stricter containment policies. As people dynamically adjust their behaviour in response to information and policies, the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions becomes visible, with a time lag of around 5 weeks. Supplementary robustness checks and an alternative difference-in-differences framework analysis do not fundamentally alter the main conclusions. Finally, extending the analysis to excess mortality, I find that the lockdown measures would have been associated with a lower excess mortality rate in Sweden by 25 percentage points, with a steep age gradient of 29 percentage points for the most vulnerable elderly cohort. The outcome of this study can assist policymakers in laying out future guidelines to further protect public health, as well as facilitate plans for economic recovery. - Reproduced
| Item type | Current location | Call number | Vol info | Status | Date due | Barcode |
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Articles
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Indian Institute of Public Administration | 23(3), Sep, 2020: p.323-344 | Available | AR124353 |
This paper estimates the effect of non pharmaceutical intervention policies on public health during the COVID-19 outbreak by considering a counterfactual case for Sweden. Using a synthetic control approach, I find that strict initial lockdown measures play an important role in limiting the spread of the COVID-19 infection, as the infection cases in Sweden would have been reduced by almost 75 percent had its policymakers followed stricter containment policies. As people dynamically adjust their behaviour in response to information and policies, the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions becomes visible, with a time lag of around 5 weeks. Supplementary robustness checks and an alternative difference-in-differences framework analysis do not fundamentally alter the main conclusions. Finally, extending the analysis to excess mortality, I find that the lockdown measures would have been associated with a lower excess mortality rate in Sweden by 25 percentage points, with a steep age gradient of 29 percentage points for the most vulnerable elderly cohort. The outcome of this study can assist policymakers in laying out future guidelines to further protect public health, as well as facilitate plans for economic recovery. - Reproduced
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