Waning immunity and the second wave: Some projections for SARS -Cov-2
By: Giannitsarou, C., Kissler, S. and Toxvaerd, F
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Material type: 
BookPublisher: The American Economic Review: Insights Description: 3(3), Sep, 2021: p.321-338.Subject(s): COVID-19 (DIsease)
In:
The American Economic Review: InsightsSummary: This paper offers projections of future transmission dynamics for SARS-CoV-2 in an SEIRS model with demographics and waning immunity. In a stylized optimal control setting calibrated to the United States, we show that the disease is endemic in steady state and that its dynamics are characterized by damped oscillations. The magnitude of the oscillations depends on how fast immunity wanes. The optimal social distancing policy both curbs peak prevalence and postpones the infection waves relative to the uncontrolled dynamics. Last, we perform sensitivity analysis with respect to the duration of immunity, the infection fatality rate, and the planning horizon. – Reproduced
| Item type | Current location | Call number | Vol info | Status | Date due | Barcode |
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Indian Institute of Public Administration | 3(3), Sep, 2021: p.321-338 | Available | AR126210 |
This paper offers projections of future transmission dynamics for SARS-CoV-2 in an SEIRS model with demographics and waning immunity. In a stylized optimal control setting calibrated to the United States, we show that the disease is endemic in steady state and that its dynamics are characterized by damped oscillations. The magnitude of the oscillations depends on how fast immunity wanes. The optimal social distancing policy both curbs peak prevalence and postpones the infection waves relative to the uncontrolled dynamics. Last, we perform sensitivity analysis with respect to the duration of immunity, the infection fatality rate, and the planning horizon. – Reproduced
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