Modeling and forecasting of pulses production in Madhya Pradesh
By: Yadav, Shikha, et al
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BookPublisher: Agricultural Situation in India Description: 79(5), Aug, 2022: p.13-26.Subject(s): Area, ARIMA, Forecasting, Production, Productivity, PulsesPulses are edible dry seeds of the leguminous family, an essential nutritious element to ensure protein for the vegetarian population of India. There seems to be a gap in their domestic production in one of the leading Indian states, Madhya Pradesh. This work aims to study and forecast the future indicators of production, productivity and cultivation area for three prominent pulse crops of gram, soybean and tur in the state of Madhya Pradesh. The paper uses data for 1980-2019 to study the three indicators. Using time series techniques (specifically ARIMA model forecasting), the study predicts that productivity will increase for gram crop, area and production will see a growth for soybean crop while all the indicators will have a decreasing trend in case of tur. The results have specific importance for the policymakers to formulate the right reforms to ensure in the future that the demand is met with pulses production to maintain the nutritional security of the population. – Reproduced


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