Moving into danger? Embedding hazard modelling in a participatory workshop to support risk-sensitive urban development in Quito, Ecuador
By: Phillips, Jeremy et al
.
Material type: 
BookPublisher: Environment & Urbanization Description: 38(1), Apr, 2026: p.43-65.Subject(s): • Disaster risk reduction, Natural hazards, Participatory modeling risk sensitive planning, Urban development, Urban expansion
In:
Environment & UrbanizationSummary: Urban development increasingly takes the form of expansion at the edge of cities, often resulting in development of locations with greater exposure to natural hazards, as exemplified in Quito, which has experienced one hazard event per 0.8 km2 of recent expansion. Predictive models of hazard impacts are thus important tools in planning, but their use can be limited by institutional technical capacity and data needs. In this paper, we present a trial approach of “just good enough” hazard modelling, using simplified but typical initial conditions and bold but reasonable parameterizations, to allow adequately realistic simulation of hazard events. This trial was run in a two-day participatory workshop with urban development departments of Quito municipality. Rapid participatory modelling proved effective in introducing hazard modelling to those without previous experience, fostering important discussion around hazard impacts and knowledge gaps, and opening broader planning dialogues across stakeholders, which is a critical first step in decision support and policy development.- Reproduced
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/09562478261423161?_gl=1*xou2k4*_up*MQ..*_ga*MzI4NTE1NDM5LjE
3ODE2MDQ1MTI.*_ga_60R758KFDG*czE3ODE2MDQ1MTEkbzEkZzEkdDE3ODE2MDQ4MzYkajQ2JGwxJGgxNzQ5MDk3OTY2
| Item type | Current location | Call number | Vol info | Status | Date due | Barcode |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Articles
|
Indian Institute of Public Administration | 38(1), Apr, 2026: p.43-65 | Available | AR139231 |
Urban development increasingly takes the form of expansion at the edge of cities, often resulting in development of locations with greater exposure to natural hazards, as exemplified in Quito, which has experienced one hazard event per 0.8 km2 of recent expansion. Predictive models of hazard impacts are thus important tools in planning, but their use can be limited by institutional technical capacity and data needs. In this paper, we present a trial approach of “just good enough” hazard modelling, using simplified but typical initial conditions and bold but reasonable parameterizations, to allow adequately realistic simulation of hazard events. This trial was run in a two-day participatory workshop with urban development departments of Quito municipality. Rapid participatory modelling proved effective in introducing hazard modelling to those without previous experience, fostering important discussion around hazard impacts and knowledge gaps, and opening broader planning dialogues across stakeholders, which is a critical first step in decision support and policy development.- Reproduced
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/09562478261423161?_gl=1*xou2k4*_up*MQ..*_ga*MzI4NTE1NDM5LjE
3ODE2MDQ1MTI.*_ga_60R758KFDG*czE3ODE2MDQ1MTEkbzEkZzEkdDE3ODE2MDQ4MzYkajQ2JGwxJGgxNzQ5MDk3OTY2
There are no comments for this item.