Indian economy: run-up to the third millenium
- 1998
- p.241-62
- Jul-Dec
The paper takes a view of the current state of India's economy and of how it is likely to take shape over the next year - on the threshold of the twenty-first century. Taking 1997-98 as a base for current and future projections, the exercise focuses on major macroeconomic indicators like GDP growth, inflation, trade flows and external deficit. The analysis is based on a comprehensive 400-equation econometric model incorporating a large number of policy variables. The paper presents not only forecasts based on assumptions that are most plausible in our judgement but also eventualities that represent downside risks which cannot be ruled out. The picture that emerges is disappointing, though by no means hopeless. The likely performance of the economy in the near future falls substantially short not only of the post-reform expectations but also of the economy's inherent potential. The need to take up the structural adjustment related part of the reforms agenda in a serious and credible manner appears to be the only way out if India is to step into the third millennium confidently with good initial conditions. - Reproduced
Economic and social development - India India - Economic conditions Economic conditions