Angeletos, George Marious et al

Business-cycle anatomy - The American Economic Review - 110(10), Oct, 2020: p.3030-3070

We propose a new strategy for dissecting the macroeconomic time series, provide a template for the business-cycle propagation mechanism that best describes the data, and use its properties to appraise models of both the parsimonious and the medium-scale variety. Our findings support the existence of a main business-cycle driver but rule out the following candidates for this role: technology or other shocks that map to TFP movements; news about future productivity; and inflationary demand shocks of the textbook type. Models aimed at accommodating demand-driven cycles without a strict reliance on nominal rigidity appear promising. – Reproduced


Time series, Business Cycle, Propagation mechanism, Demand shocks, Medium scale, Nominal rigidity, New strategy, Macroeconomic time series, Rule out