01222nam a22001217a 4500008004100000100004700041245006000088260003100148300003200179520074800211650011100959773003001070210830b           ||||| |||| 00| 0 eng d  aBanerjee, A., Chevillon, G. and Kratz, M.   aProbabilistic forecasting of bubbles and flash crashes   aThe Econometrics Journal    a23(2), May, 2020: p.297-315  aWe propose a near-explosive random coefficient autoregressive model (NERC) to obtain predictive probabilities of the apparition and devolution of bubbles. The distribution of the autoregressive coefficient of this model is allowed to be centred at an O(T−α) distance of unity, with α ∈ (0, 1). When the expectation of the autoregressive coefficient lies on the explosive side of unity, the NERC helps to model the temporary explosiveness of time series and obtain related predictive probabilities. We study the asymptotic properties of the NERC and provide a procedure for inference on the parameters. In empirical illustrations, we estimate predictive probabilities of bubbles or flash crashes in financial asset prices. – Reproduced   aRandom coefficient overaggressive model, Local asymptotic, Predictive dentistry, Bubbles, Flash crashes     aThe Econometrics Journal