01195nam a22001457a 4500 519179 519179 220214b ||||| |||| 00| 0 eng d Kohlhas, Alexandre N. and Walther, Ansgar 32075 Asymmetric attention The American Economic Review 111(3), Sep, 2021: p.2879-2925 We document that the expectations of households, firms, and professional forecasters in standard surveys simultaneously extrapolate from recent events and underreact to new information. Existing models of expectation formation, whether behavioral or rational, cannot account for these observations. We develop a rational theory of extrapolation based on limited attention, which is consistent with this evidence. In particular, we show that limited, asymmetric attention to procyclical variables can explain the coexistence of extrapolation and underreactions. We illustrate these mechanisms in a microfounded macroeconomic model, which generates expectations consistent with the survey data, and show that asymmetric attention increases business cycle fluctuations. – Reproduced The American Economic Review ECONOMICS AR 0 0 ddc 0 0 393230 IIPA IIPA 2022-02-14 111(3), Sep, 2021: p.2879-2925 AR126211 2022-02-14 AR