MacMillan, Margaret

Stress test: Can a troubled order survive a disruptive leader? - Foreign Affairs - 104(1), Jan-Feb, 2025: p.8-16

Historians are skittish about predicting the future, and not only because there are too many variables and possibilities. It is also not always easy to grasp the significance of events when you are in the middle of them. When the Berlin Wall came down in 1989, people grasped at once that a new era had started. But few Europeans foresaw that the assassination of Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo in June 1914 would precipitate a terrifying, continent-spanning war in which more than 16 million people would be killed, and even tech experts did not understand the significance of the iPhone when Apple’. Reproduced

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/stress-test-trump-margaret-macmillan