Saha, Jeet  and Iqubal, Zafar <br/><br/>
Fertility in the business cycle: The case of India 

 -  Economic & Political Weekly   
 - 60(4), Jan 25, 2025: p.55-61 
<br/><br/> Through a non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model, we find that although fertility is affected when the unemployment rate rises, a fall in the unemployment rate does not affect it. Thus, our finding reveals that the effect of unemployment on fertility in India is permanent. We built both short- and long-run models and found that in the short run, fertility is countercyclical, but in the long run, it is procyclical. Our findings also suggest that inflation and infant mortality rate’s effects on fertility are significant. Moreover, the short- and long-run effects of inflation and IMR on fertility are opposite.- Reproduced <br/><br/>https://www.epw.in/journal/2025/4/special-articles/fertility-business-cycle.html<br/>