India’s ASEAN trade intensity determinants: Evidence from the FGLS gravity estimation
- Economic & Political Weekly
- 60(31), Aug 2, 2025: p.53-60
This paper computes India’s trade intensities with the ASEAN economies and the region. Then the feasible generalised least squares technique is applied to a gravity equation to identify the determinants of India’s trade intensity index with ASEAN countries. The sample covers India and its 10 ASEAN partners for 32 years— from 1990 to 2021. The index values reveal that India’s exports to ASEAN region countries (Myanmar, Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand) are higher than the expected potential exports, except for Lao PDR, the Philippines, Brunei, and Cambodia, where the index is underutilised and needs to be strengthened, given that India has bilateral engagement with these nations. Sectoral results suggest India’s high trade intensity with ASEAN in fuel, agriculture, textiles, ores and metals. However, low trade intensity exists in chemicals and manufacturing. The paper’s findings confirm Linder’s hypothesis and support the rise in South–South trade. - Reproduced