Export lead growth hypothesis (ELGH): Co-integration and causality analysis for India
By: Das, Samir Kumar and Behera, Minaketan
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Material type: 
BookPublisher: The Indian Journal of Economics Description: 400(101), Jul, 2020: p.57-66.Subject(s): Growth, Export, India, Co-integration test, Granger causality test
In:
The Indian Journal of EconomicsSummary: The objective of this paper is to examine the association between performance of real exports and imports and economic development in India for the period 1971-2018. The paper employs a variety of analytical tools, including co integration analysis, Granger causality tests, and unit root tests, coupled with vector auto regression (VAR) analyses in order to test export led growth hypothesis. The empirical findings revealed that GDP, real exports and real imports are co-integrated and it confirmed existence of long-run relationship among the variables. Granger Causality Test results do not reject the null hypothesis of real exports does not Granger causes GDP, even though two measures for GDP are used (GDP and GDP net of Exports). However, it found one-way causality between Exports and Investment. The causality flows from exports to investment. Further, the study found one-way causality from investment to economic growth. - Reproduced
| Item type | Current location | Call number | Vol info | Status | Date due | Barcode |
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Articles
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Indian Institute of Public Administration | 400(101), Jul, 2020: p.57-66 | Available | AR126223 |
The objective of this paper is to examine the association between performance of real exports and imports and economic development in India for the period 1971-2018. The paper employs a variety of analytical tools, including co integration analysis, Granger causality tests, and unit root tests, coupled with vector auto regression (VAR) analyses in order to test export led growth hypothesis. The empirical findings revealed that GDP, real exports and real imports are co-integrated and it confirmed existence of long-run relationship among the variables. Granger Causality Test results do not reject the null hypothesis of real exports does not Granger causes GDP, even though two measures for GDP are used (GDP and GDP net of Exports). However, it found one-way causality between Exports and Investment. The causality flows from exports to investment. Further, the study found one-way causality from investment to economic growth. - Reproduced
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