000			01519pab a2200193 454500
008			180718b1999 xxu||||| |||| 00| 0 eng d
100			_aIbrahim, Mansor H.
245			_aMoney, exchange rate and inflationary dynamics in Malaysia: a post forecast evaluation
260			_c1999
300			_ap.69-85
362			_aDec
520			_aThe paper examines the inflationary dynamics of Malaysia by considering the roles that may be played by money supply growth and exchange rate changes using both within-sample and post-sample performance evaluations. Consistent with existing studies, our within-sample results indicate that the growth rates of money and, to some extent, changes in the exchange rate are causally linked to inflation. However, when we employ out-of-sample measures, we find that the causal models with money and/or the exchange rate perform worse than a time-series model in anticipating future inflation rates. The results may be due to the breakdown in the empirical relationships between money, the exchange rate and the prices, on which we verify using the Chow test. Relatedly, the models may also suffer from misspecification. Accordingly, basing policy recommendations for inflation stabilization solely on monetary aggregates or the exchange rate are likely to be misleading. - Reproduced
650			_aInflation - Malaysia
650			_aMoney - Malaysia
650			_aExchange rates - Malaysia
650			_aExchange rates
773			_aAsia-Pacific Development Journal
909			_a45457
999			_c45457 _d45457