000			01203nam a22001457a 4500
999			_c515661 _d515661
008			210203b ||||| |||| 00| 0 eng d
100			_aBordalo, P. et al _924074
245			_aOverreaction in Macroeconomic Expectations
260			_aThe American Economic Review
300			_a110(9), Sep, 2020: p.2748-2782
520			_aWe study the rationality of individual and consensus forecasts of macroeconomic and financial variables using the methodology of Coibion and Gorodnichenko (2015), who examine predictability of forecast errors from forecast revisions. We find that individual forecasters typically overreact to news, while consensus forecasts underreact relative to full-information rational expectations. We reconcile these findings within a diagnostic expectations version of a dispersed information learning model. Structural estimation indicates that departures from Bayesian updating in the form of diagnostic overreaction capture important variation in forecast biases across different series, yielding a belief distortion parameter similar to estimates obtained in other settings. – Reproduced
773			_aThe American Economic Review
906			_aMACROECONOMICS
942			_cAR