000			01823nam a22001577a 4500
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100			_aCho, Sang-Wook _924376
245			_aQuantifying the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 outbreak: The case of Sweden
260			_aThe Econometrics Journal
300			_a23(3), Sep, 2020: p.323-344
520			_aThis paper estimates the effect of non pharmaceutical intervention policies on public health during the COVID-19 outbreak by considering a counterfactual case for Sweden. Using a synthetic control approach, I find that strict initial lockdown measures play an important role in limiting the spread of the COVID-19 infection, as the infection cases in Sweden would have been reduced by almost 75 percent had its policymakers followed stricter containment policies. As people dynamically adjust their behaviour in response to information and policies, the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions becomes visible, with a time lag of around 5 weeks. Supplementary robustness checks and an alternative difference-in-differences framework analysis do not fundamentally alter the main conclusions. Finally, extending the analysis to excess mortality, I find that the lockdown measures would have been associated with a lower excess mortality rate in Sweden by 25 percentage points, with a steep age gradient of 29 percentage points for the most vulnerable elderly cohort. The outcome of this study can assist policymakers in laying out future guidelines to further protect public health, as well as facilitate plans for economic recovery. - Reproduced
650			_aCOVID-19, Casual impact, systhetic control method, Public health policies, Sweden _922728
773			_aThe Econometrics Journal
906			_aCOVID-19 (DISEASE)
942			_cAR