000			01553nam a22001577a 4500
999			_c517623 _d517623
008			210722b ||||| |||| 00| 0 eng d
100			_aBenguria, Felipe and Taylor, Alan M. _927359
245			_aAfter the panic: Are financial crises demand or supply shocks: Evidence from international trade
260			_aThe American Economic Review: Insights
300			_a2(4), Dec, 2020: p.509-526
520			_aAre financial crises a negative shock to aggregate demand or supply? This is a fundamental question for research and policy making. Arguments for stimulus usually presume demand-side shortfalls; arguments for tax cuts or structural reform look to the supply side. Resolving the question requires models with both mechanisms, and empirical tests to tell them apart. We develop a small open economy model, where a country is subject to deleveraging shocks that impose binding credit constraints on households and/or firms. These financial crisis events leave distinct statistical signatures in the time series record that divide sharply between each type of shock. Empirical analysis reveals a clear picture: after financial crises the dominant pattern is that imports contract, exports hold steady or even rise, and the real exchange rate depreciates. History shows financial crises are predominantly a negative shock to demand.- Reproduced
650			_aEconomic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, Technology _927360
773			_aThe American Economic Review: Insights
906			_aFINANCIAL CRISES
942			_cAR