000			01125nam a22001457a 4500
999			_c522281 _d522281
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100			_aPaluszynski, Radoslaw _939144
245			_aLearning about debt crises
260			_aAmerican Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
300			_a15(1), Jan, 2023: p.106-134
520			_aThe European debt crisis presents a challenge to our understanding of the relationship between government bond yields and economic fundamentals. I argue that information frictions are an important missing element and support that claim with evidence on the evolution of GDP forecast errors after 2008. I build a quantitative model of sovereign default where output features rare disasters and agents learn about their realizations. Debt crises coincide with economic depressions and develop gradually while markets update their expectations about future income. Calibrated to the Portuguese economy, the model replicates the comovement of bond spreads and output before and after 2008.- Reproduced
773			_aAmerican Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
906			_aDEBT CRISES
942			_cAR