000			01218nam a22001457a 4500
999			_c522882 _d522882
008			230609b ||||| |||| 00| 0 eng d
100			_aCaldwell, S., Nelson, S. and Waldinger, D. _941730
245			_aTax refund uncertainty: Evidence and welfare implications
260			_aAmerican Economic Journal: Applied Economics
300			_a15(2), Apr, 2023: p.352-376
520			_aTransfers paid through annual tax refunds are a large but uncertain source of income for poor households. We document that low-income tax filers have substantial subjective uncertainty about these refunds. We investigate the determinants and consequences of refund uncertainty by linking survey, tax, and credit bureau data. On average, filers' expectations track realized refunds. More uncertain filers have larger differences between expected and realized refunds. Filers borrow in anticipation of their refunds, but more uncertain filers borrow less, consistent with precautionary behavior. A simple consumption-savings model suggests that refund uncertainty reduces the welfare benefits of the EITC by about 10 percent.- Reproduced
773			_aAmerican Economic Journal: Applied Economics
906			_aTAXATION
942			_cAR