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100 _aMercan, Yusuf, Schoefer, Benjamin and Sedláček, Petr
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245 _aA congestion theory of unemployment fluctuations
260 _aAmerican Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
300 _a16(1), Jan, 2024: p.238-285
520 _aWe propose a theory of unemployment fluctuations in which new hires and incumbent workers are imperfect substitutes. Hence, attempts to hire away the unemployed during recessions diminish the marginal product of new hires, discouraging job creation. This single feature achieves a tenfold increase in the volatility of hiring in an otherwise standard search model, produces a realistic Beveridge curve despite countercyclical separations, and explains 30–40 percent of US unemployment fluctuations. Additionally, it explains the excess procyclicality of new hires' wages, the cyclical labor wedge, countercyclical earnings losses from job displacement, and the limited steady-state effects of unemployment insurance. – Reproduced https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.20210171
773 _aAmerican Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
906 _aEMPLOYMENT
942 _cAR