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999			_c527241 _d527241
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100			_aCarlsson-Szlezak, Philipp and Swartz, Paul _956550
245			_aHow to assess true macroeconomic risk
260			_aHarvard Business Review
300			_a102(4), Jul-Aug, 2024: p.85-93
520			_aIn this article, adapted from the forthcoming book Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms, the authors explain how economic analysis works in the real world. They lay out three principles for navigating the rising number of economic risks: (1) Don’t put too much stock in any one economic model. (2) Ignore the doomsayers in the financial press. (3) Cultivate rational optimism and an eclectic form of judgment that draws on multiple sources. That involves identifying the critical drivers of potential risk, building a narrative, and pressure-testing it from multiple perspectives. The “dismal science” of economics and our clickbait culture of public discourse are a perfect match to fuel simplistic narratives of doom. To avoid false alarms and achieve a true assessment of macroeconomic risks, the authors write, leaders should look past both to reclaim their own judgment.- Reproduced https://hbr.org/2024/07/how-to-assess-true-macroeconomic-risk
773			_aHarvard Business Review
906			_aMACRO ECONOMICS
942			_cAR